Recent work has proposed Wasserstein k-means (Wk-means) clustering as a powerful method to identify regimes in time series data, and one-dimensional asset returns in particular. In this paper, we begin by studying in detail the behaviour of the Wasserstein k-means clustering algorithm applied to synthetic one-dimensional time series data. We study the dynamics of the algorithm and investigate how varying different hyperparameters impacts the performance of the clustering algorithm for different random initialisations. We compute simple metrics that we find are useful in identifying high-quality clusterings. Then, we extend the technique of Wasserstein k-means clustering to multidimensional time series data by approximating the multidimensional Wasserstein distance as a sliced Wasserstein distance, resulting in a method we call `sliced Wasserstein k-means (sWk-means) clustering'. We apply the sWk-means clustering method to the problem of automated regime detection in multidimensional time series data, using synthetic data to demonstrate the validity of the approach. Finally, we show that the sWk-means method is effective in identifying distinct market regimes in real multidimensional financial time series, using publicly available foreign exchange spot rate data as a case study. We conclude with remarks about some limitations of our approach and potential complementary or alternative approaches.

Clustering is an important exploratory data analysis technique to group objects based on their similarity. The widely used $K$-means clustering method relies on some notion of distance to partition data into a fewer number of groups. In the Euclidean space, centroid-based and distance-based formulations of the $K$-means are equivalent. In modern machine learning applications, data often arise as probability distributions and a natural generalization to handle measure-valued data is to use the optimal transport metric. Due to non-negative Alexandrov curvature of the Wasserstein space, barycenters suffer from regularity and non-robustness issues. The peculiar behaviors of Wasserstein barycenters may make the centroid-based formulation fail to represent the within-cluster data points, while the more direct distance-based $K$-means approach and its semidefinite program (SDP) relaxation are capable of recovering the true cluster labels. In the special case of clustering Gaussian distributions, we show that the SDP relaxed Wasserstein $K$-means can achieve exact recovery given the clusters are well-separated under the $2$-Wasserstein metric. Our simulation and real data examples also demonstrate that distance-based $K$-means can achieve better classification performance over the standard centroid-based $K$-means for clustering probability distributions and images.

This paper presents a proposal of a faster Wasserstein $k$-means algorithm for histogram data by reducing Wasserstein distance computations and exploiting sparse simplex projection. We shrink data samples, centroids, and the ground cost matrix, which leads to considerable reduction of the computations used to solve optimal transport problems without loss of clustering quality. Furthermore, we dynamically reduced the computational complexity by removing lower-valued data samples and harnessing sparse simplex projection while keeping the degradation of clustering quality lower. We designate this proposed algorithm as sparse simplex projection based Wasserstein $k$-means, or SSPW $k$-means. Numerical evaluations conducted with comparison to results obtained using Wasserstein $k$-means algorithm demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SSPW $k$-means for real-world datasets